2025-12-18

178. Deputy Peter Roche asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance whether his Department has assessed the cumulative impact of rising energy, childcare and housing costs on households that do not qualify for means-tested supports; whether targeted tax credit adjustments are under consideration in future budget preparations; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [73232/25]

I am asking this question on behalf of my colleague Deputy Pete Roche who has done an awful lot of work in this area for families in his constituency of Galway East. The question is about what assessment the Department of Finance has carried out of the cumulative increase in costs in things like energy, childcare and housing, and the effect that has on hard-pressed working families. Will that assessment result in any particular policy change, for example, more targeted supports in next year's budget or future budgets?

I thank Deputy Ward for taking this question on behalf of our colleague, Deputy Pete Roche. As part of the budget process, my Department annually conducts distributional analysis to examine the impact of proposed tax and welfare measures on a range of households. Given the variety of ways in which means tests are applied it would not be possible to do such analysis specifically on households that do not qualify for means tested supports. As in previous budgets, distributional analysis was conducted through the decision-making process for budget 2026 and ex post distributional analysis of the final budget measures was then published on budget day. The analysis finds that all households receive an average boost in their net disposable income of 1.1% as a result of budget 2026. The budget is also progressive, with low-income households gaining more. The bottom two income cohorts gain 4.9% and 3.8%, respectively. The analysis indicates that budget 2026 reduces the at-risk-of-poverty rate for all households by 1.7% on average. That is not something you hear in this House very often. As the Deputy will appreciate, in the budget the Government had to make difficult choices to get back to an annual rhythm of budgeting and move beyond one-off measures to being able to deliver permanent, sustainable and targeted measures to assist people. The budget was designed to boost our economic resilience and support workers and growth in their income by investing in jobs and the future. However, with the substantial personal income tax packages implemented over the past four years, the previous Government made significant progress in the context of increasing the entry point to income tax for all income earners and increasing the point at which the higher rate of income tax takes effect. These income tax measures are broadly expected to be in line with wage growth. Budget 2025 has provided a range of support to individuals, families and businesses. In particular, the rent tax credit has proven to be a very meaningful support for renters. The credit is being extended for a further three years. The ceiling of the second USC rate band is being increased. This will ensure that a full-time worker on the minimum wage who benefits from the increase in the hourly minimum wage will remain outside the highest rates of USC. The 9% VAT on gas and electricity bills, which most opposition parties only budgeted to go to the end of the year or April, will now be in place for several years until the 31 December 2030. There is also a variety of other measures.

I acknowledge what has been done in the budget in respect of this area. I acknowledge particularly the difficulty in balancing the importance of supports without creating inflationary pressure in other areas. I recognise that this has been done in the budget to a large extent. However, in certain schemes where supports are being provided, there are different pressures on families depending on where they live. The supports that are provided are across the board. There is no recognition of the fact that, for example, housing is much more expensive in cities. There is no recognition of the fact that if you are running a childcare facility in my constituency of Dún Laoghaire, your rent will be higher as will the rent paid by your staff. I raised with the Minister for children previously the idea that we might have varied rates according to where they are in the country, but I do not know if that is possible. Has the Department of Finance looked at the possibility of having staggered rates around the country?

It is a very interesting point. This week, the Minister, Deputy Foley, took a very important step forward in publishing the first instalment of the action plan on childcare. That has a number of areas on which she is endeavouring to move including on the issue of staffing and pay but also in trying to provide maximum fee caps starting with lower income families. Next year has to be about publishing a comprehensive plan that gets us from here to the destination envisaged in the programme for Government of €200 per month per child. We know how to do that. What we need to know is how we do it. In addition, we need to make sure the system has enough places and staff. The Deputy made the point that one size does not fit all. There is not a one-size-fits-all model in relation to childcare. The parent has to have choice – that is really important – but even in a country as geographically small as Ireland there can be regional and local differences and providing a system that is flexible enough to understand that will be part of the challenge. Good measures have been taken this year, including the funding in capital for state interventions in some of these and 2026 will see the substantive plan.

I wish the Ceann Comhairle a happy Christmas. I want to raise targeted tax credit adjustments. The budget was significant, with an extra €9.4 billion spent. We got a lot of criticism and many questions were asked. It was suggested that, potentially, we had spent too much. There was a real focus on the part of this Government on supporting the most vulnerable, which is exactly what we did. We put a lot of extra spending in social welfare to really look after people in need, and correctly so. There was also significant capital investment. Is there any way we can look at the next part, namely - and as a previous speaker mentioned - the people who get up early in the morning and how to deal with them? How can the budget benefit families?

Sometimes it is like Goldilocks – too hot, too cold or just right. In every debate I do on finance, whether it is here or the media, the first half is spent saying we spent too much money and the second half is a list of things we on which we should have spent more. The job of the Minister for Finance, the Government and the Oireachtas is to try and get the balance right. The first of five budgets had to be about getting back to a regular pattern of budgeting and being very clear to everybody in this country and everybody who looks at investing here that we intend to continue to run budget surpluses and continue to set money aside into the funds and invest at scale in infrastructure and in respect of the infrastructural pinch points that are holding us back. It was the budget of 9% in many ways - 9% for energy, which was reduced until the end of 2030, for jobs in the hospitality sector and also for stimulating apartment building because that is key to our housing challenge. However, I want to assure Deputies, their constituents and the people of Ireland that I want to get back to a regular budgetary rhythm whereby we can advance the tax measures for middle Ireland outlined in the programme for Government. Subject to being able to run the economy well and keeping things on the straight and narrow, that is exactly the path we will take over the next four budgets.

I agree about having a standard measure that is predictable from year to year, particularly in relation to the tax brackets. However, tax credits is one area in respect of which we could potentially address issues relating to working families. These are the families caught between qualifying for certain grants and not earning enough to be okay on their own. Tax credits, reform of tax credits or giving them advantages in terms of what tax they pay is one area. Means tests are not keeping up with inflation, and that affects families in the middle ground. They might earn more money, fall outside something that is means tested but not have more purchasing power on foot of inflation.

That is absolutely right. We have to keep the means test under review so they do not become mean. That is why we took a number of steps in the budget, particularly around carers, to make sure more people qualify because, ultimately, we want to phase out the means test. The Department of Social Protection, certainly in the previous Dáil, was working on reviewing the means test. I will seek an update for the Deputy on that. We live in a country where wage growth is outstripping price growth on average. For the first time in a while, we are seeing wages rising faster than prices. That is much-needed potential relief for families in the months and year ahead after what has been a very constrained and pressurised time in relation to the cost of living. Regarding tax credits, I am learning in this job not to speculate on every potential measure. Lots of good ideas come up in this House. Tax measures are considered in the context of the annual budget. We have the work of the tax strategy group. I will be asking it to look at a range of issues in advance of the next budget. I will be happy to have feedback from Deputy Ward and other Members on that.