2026-01-15

106. Deputy Roderic O'Gorman asked the Minister for Transport for an update on the corrective action modelling project his Department is developing to correct the trajectory of carbon emissions from the transport sector out to 2030; when this will be published; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [2585/26]

Over Christmas, the Minister raised the white flag on our 2030 emissions targets four years ahead of schedule. One of the areas where Ireland continues to struggle is the emissions from our transport sector. The NDP sectoral plan the Minister published in November referenced the corrective action modelling project that the Department of Transport is leading to try to tackle the gap in our transport emissions. When does the Minister expect to publish that work?

First, no one has raised the white flag. I read with real interest and, actually, amusement the Deputy's comments in that regard since he is someone who served in the Government in the past five years and his former party leader did a very good job in that area. We are reducing emissions while the economy and the population are growing. A lot of the projects we have been talking about today will help to further decarbonise our transport system. Transport is critical in that regard. I am being honest with people and changing that climate conversation to ensure that people see the benefits of the transition that is under way in this country. Really significant progress has been made across many sectors, including agriculture, transport and, in particular, energy. We are clear on the climate obligations we have. I am committed to advancing the progress we have made. However, we also have to be very honest with ourselves about where we will land at the end of the decade. I gave a view on that, which was based on projections I have, and it is important people know that. That is not to surrender anything at all. I can see where we will further accelerate our progress between now and the end of this decade and in the early 2030s. That conversation itself needs to change, and we are having an honest conversation with people and stakeholders and further advancing the good work that was done by my predecessor and the previous Government. However, we need to be honest with people too. That is where the discussions we have had even here this morning about the competing demands, and rightly so, with regard to public transport will be critical. I refer to continued electrification of our public transport network and of our car fleet. We have exceeded targets, by the way, with regard to electric vehicles. We have targeted the supports there for people through tax measures and grants. We will accelerate retrofitting of homes as well. In no way has anyone raised a white flag in that regard. Of that I can assure the Deputy.

The Minister's comments over Christmas cannot be taken in any way other than raising a white flag on this issue. What shocks me is that it is happening four years before the date for our 2030 targets. Notwithstanding our disagreement on that, will the Minister speak to a particular project taking place in his Department, the corrective action project, which is to address the emissions gap pre-2030 as well as post 2030? If the Government is to effectively try to bring us on track in the transport sector pre-2030, this has to be published soon so those actions can start to be implemented and can take place. Has the Minister engaged with his officials on this project? Does he have any sense of the recommendations for new, extra measures, that this will bring forward? Does he have any sense of when that document will be published? Will any additional budget be provided for these extra measures?

We will get back to the point of agreement in this regard. I thank the Deputy for the question. It has been widely acknowledged that transport is and continues to be a difficult sector to decarbonise, but we are making progress. The development of the transport chapter of the climate action plan identified and set out policies intended to put the sector on a pathway to achieve an emissions reduction of 50% by 2030. Current indications, however, are that the carbon budget 1, 2021-25, target of 54 MtCO2eq has been exceeded and any overshoot will therefore be deducted from the carbon budget 2, 2026-30, target of 37 MtCO2eq. Achieving that more demanding target will be a challenge. Again, we have to be honest with people on that. With that in mind, my Department has been working very closely with the NTA over the past 12 months to deliver the CAP corrective action modelling project that the Deputy has asked about. The aims of the project are essentially to identify potential policies and measures to correct the trajectory, which we are doing; determine whether the transport sector can go beyond this in order to address the issue of unallocated savings for carbon budget 2-----

Thank you, Minister.

I will come back on the supplementary question with the rest of my time.

The Green Party has called on the Minister and his Government to publish a plan B to show how, across all sectors of the economy, they will try to get us back on track to meet the emissions reduction targets. This project could serve as a model as to how that could be done across the economy. As regards one of the key consequences of the decision set out in the Department's sectoral plan for transport in November of last year, moving that 2:1 ratio of public transport to roads back to 1:1, I think we are already seeing the negative consequences of that. If the project recommends, in light of the height of our transport emissions and the importance of investment in new public transport, a return to the 2:1 ratio, will the Government accept that recommendation?

To put to bed this mistruth in relation to the ratio, the Deputy is not correct and has been peddling this mistruth. The 2:1 ratio always was and always will be a relatively rough and ready reckoner. Having said that, based on the NDP sectoral plan, the ratio is as at more than 2:1 in relation to investment in public transport versus new roads. That is a fact. The Deputy cannot dispute that. We are looking at an investment package in the NDP that is heavily weighted towards public transport. On that basis, the ratio is about 2.6:1 in favour of new public transport over new roads. That is a fact. To get back to the Deputy's question, the corrective actions modelling project is progressing very well. That will feed into the 2026 climate action plan. It will be completed in the coming months. I cannot tell the Deputy that it will be this quarter but it is well under way. I met officials yesterday evening and got a progress update on that. Where we can take corrective measures, we will, and we have a real opportunity to do that in the transport sector.