2026-01-29

8. Deputy Paul Murphy asked the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine if his Department has contingency planning in place to protect the future of Irish farming if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, AMOC, collapses; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [6975/26]

Over the past few days, we have seen how unprepared the State is for even moderately extreme weather, with the likes of yellow weather warnings and Storm Chandra. My question is about something much more severe, which is what contingency planning the Minister has in place for Irish agriculture if the AMOC, which includes the Gulf Stream, collapses, as researchers now believe is likely to start happening between 2050 and 2063.

I thank Deputy Murphy. Is "moderately extreme" a thing or is it an oxymoron? When I was in Australia somebody pulled me up for saying something was "terrible bad". I was told something is either bad or terrible but that it cannot be both. Deputy Murphy caught me with "moderately extreme". All joking aside, I thank Deputy Murphy for raising this important question concerning the resilience of Irish farming in the event of a significant disruption to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. AMOC is a massive system of ocean currents, often called a conveyor belt, that transports warm, salty surface water from the tropics north toward Europe and North America. The movement of this warm water plays a crucial role in regulating our climate and helping to keep Ireland and much of Europe warmer and milder than other regions at the same latitude. This circulation helps Ireland to maintain generally mild temperatures, reducing the severity of prolonged cold weather, and plays an important role in shaping rainfall patterns and the occurrence of extreme weather events across Ireland and Europe. The Department played a key role in developing the climate risks identified in the national climate change risk assessment, working closely with the Environmental Protection Agency, Met Éireann and other Departments to ensure that risks to agriculture, forestry and seafood were fully reflected. Climate adaptation and long-term resilience planning are core priorities for my Department under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2021 and the updated national adaptation framework, NAF. My Department does not treat the AMOC risk in isolation. Rather, we continuously review climate risks as part of our co-ordinated cross-government planning frameworks, including through the national climate change risk assessment, NCCRA, and subsequent adaptation planning processes, which provide evidence-based assessments of hazards that could impact the economy, environment and society. These things cannot be looked at on their own. We have just been discussing a virus, bluetongue, that is found across Europe and climate change is probably having that impact. These things are all interlinked.

What is the contingency plan? The Minister says he does not treat AMOC in isolation. That is good, but does he treat it at all? The national climate change risk assessment explicitly states that events such as the collapse of the AMOC are not addressed in the scenarios used within the NCCRA. The assessment does not account for this type of scenario. What is the contingency planning? It will be utterly devastating. It is a sign of the severity of the climate catastrophe. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, said it might happen by 2100 or later. Now, it could begin to happen from 2050. There was a report in June by Dutch scientists who said the collapse of AMOC could see Dublin experiencing temperatures of -22°C, with one day in three out of the entire year having sub-zero temperatures. Met Éireann said that an AMOC collapse would be a high-impact, transformative event with severe consequences. Obviously, the consequences for agriculture would be very severe.

When I first got this job a year ago I got many regular briefings on disease threats, risks, plant diseases, animal diseases, weather risks and everything else. It is a bit overwhelming and then after a while one realises we have our mitigation plans and our approach, which I will go into in a minute. However, it is important we do not catastrophise. The NCCRA, published in 2025, identifies over 100 climate risks and prioritises 43 significant risks across sectors. While AMOC is noted as a system concern, a full collapse is considered a low-likelihood, high-impact event. More immediate risks to agriculture include increased weather variability, storm impacts and shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns. My sectoral adaption plan for 2025 strengthens resilience in agriculture, forestry and seafood. The key objective is to embed adaptation, enhance resilience and integrate adaptation and mitigation measures. Priority actions cover a wide range of areas, to respond to the direct question, such as advisory and technical capacity, sustainable land and water management, which involves improving soil health, water retention, hedgerows, flood resilience and other measures, which I can address in my next supplementary contribution.

I heard the Minister's answer and, unfortunately, he is saying we do not have any contingency plans for the collapse of AMOC.

I just listed actions.

No, those actions are all based on not addressing AMOC. The NCCRA explicitly states that its assessment is not based on the collapse of AMOC.

It says it is low likelihood.

I do not know if the Minister knows that climate scientists are now saying this is likely to begin in 2063. AMOC is already weakening. There is lots of evidence to indicate AMOC is already weakening. A high-risk event, even if there is a low likelihood of it happening in the next 20 or 30 years, is something we need to plan for. The year 2063 is not that far away. There are people who are taking up a farm now who could be affected by the collapse of AMOC. Are we looking at things like drought resistant crops, nature-based solutions, early warning systems and community resilience building? These are all measures recommended by Professor Peter Thorne, chair of the Climate Change Advisory Council's adaptation committee. What work is the Department doing on those?

To finish the point I was making on the sectoral adaption plan, as well as priority actions in areas such as advisory and technical capacity, sustainable land and water management, we also have forestry resilience, species diversification, improved management and early warning for pests and fire. We are the fourth largest spending Department on research and much of that research is focused on the impact of our changing climate and building our resilience, whether it is in forestry sector, the crop sector or animal health and welfare; the marine and coastal adaptation; climate resilient aquaculture infrastructure and coastal protection; research, knowledge transfer and innovation; or sector-wide learning, innovation and local preparedness. These all feed into the broader approach. I know the Deputy's question is focused on AMOC but we have to have a hierarchy of risk. The plan is delivery focused and evidence based, with 102 actions designed to mainstream adaptation across policy, regulation, funding and advisory systems, to demonstrate measurable progress over time on all of these key areas. We cannot just focus on one specific area, as the Deputy's question does. It is the broad range of issues and changes that are coming in that space.

We will move to Question No. 11 before returning to Question No. 9 to give Deputy Ó Murchú a chance to-----

I am ready.

Can I be indulged as I am supposed to be chairing a committee?

That is fine.

I appreciate the collegiality from my constituency colleague, Deputy Ó Murchú.