2026-04-21

239. Deputy Michael Murphy asked the Tánaiste and Minister for Finance the work being carried out by his Department to ensure that citizens have access to robust and detailed financial analysis regarding the implications of a potential united Ireland, including disparities in taxation, public spending and fiscal transfers; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [24950/26]

I thank Deputy Murphy for this question. As somebody who would like to see a united Ireland in my lifetime and as somebody who is proud to lead a party that has "the United Ireland party" in its full title, I very much welcome the question. I want to engage constructively with Members across the House on this. The Government of Ireland is committed to the unity of the Irish people. We are committed to that with a focus on reconciliation and developing the three sets of relationships recognised in the Good Friday Agreement to unlock the full potential of our island. Through the shared island initiative, the Government is prioritising the work of building co-operation and reconciliation with an ambitious agenda to deliver progress and to remain steadfast in fully implementing the Good Friday Agreement. Obviously, the principle of consent and the possibility of change in the constitutional status of Northern Ireland are fundamental elements of the Good Friday Agreement endorsed by the people North and South and accordingly the Government's approach with regard to Irish unity is guided by Article 3 of the Constitution. Thus, in the event of a future referendum within the consent provisions of the Good Friday Agreement, the Government will make all necessary preparations in accordance with the terms of the Constitution and the principles and procedures of the agreement. To date, the Government has advanced the largest ever programme of all-island investment to build a more connected island through the shared island initiative, backed by a €2 billion shared island fund. Last April, the Government launched a new phase of a joint research programme with the ESRI, which is really the nub of the Deputy's question, focusing on strategic policy and co-operation considerations for the island. Much of what the shared island unit has been doing, which we all support, has involved investing in really meaningful projects. The ESRI strand is particularly interesting because it looks from a policy point of view at the compatability elements between how things are done in the North and here and where the differences are. Within days of coming into office, I was very pleased to launch a new annual ESRI series entitled "Assessing Economic Trends in Ireland and Northern Ireland". At the launch of this report, I highlighted how valuable the series is, especially its deeper data comparisons and economic indicators, which together offer important insights and food for thought and help inform us of the policy we need to develop. I will return to some of that in a moment.

For me, it is really about ensuring that citizens are properly informed. Any decision must be grounded in credible, transparent and accessible financial analysis. I know various independent academic studies are being carried out and some already exist but I do not think there is any single authoritative, State-led body of work. There are a number of areas where clarity is essential, including taxation; the difference between tax bases North and South around income tax, corporation tax and indirect taxes; public spending around health; social protection measures; public services; and the complex area of fiscal transfers, such as the extent of subvention currently provided by the UK. These are complex issues. Other jurisdictions facing future constitutional or structural change have invested in serious, evidence-based preparatory work and there is no reason we should not do the same so that citizens can make that informed decision at the appropriate time.

I agree completely with the Deputy on this question. It is really welcome that this has come down. I acknowledge the Tánaiste's comments on this. We all acknowledge the shared island unit and the work it is doing but the question we need to ask ourselves is whether we believe we are enablers of bringing about constitutional change in a system that operates under the Good Friday Agreement and with consent, and most if not all of the people in this House believe we are. Therefore, we have to do the preparatory work. These are complex issues and it should not be left to academics, the ESRI or others to do this. We have to find a way and a space and we must recognise the space we will occupy in doing this but we must find a space to carry out some of this work. I think back to when Simon Coveney was competing for leadership of Fine Gael. He spoke about setting up a committee to look at this and talked about papers, and I thought it was a very good argument. We have lost time. This is coming down the tracks and we have to be prepared so I really welcome this debate.

I certainly welcome that question and would welcome answers even more. Deputy Currie will know what I am talking about when I talk about what was agreed at the Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement. That was cross-party. It involved perspectives on constitutional change concentrating on finance and economics. We have a number of agreed recommendations that really need to be implemented. We heard it was reckless not to prepare. It is reckless not to do this work, regardless of one's constitutional preference or how people will decide to vote at the end of the day. One of the recommendations was that an Oireachtas committee be mandated, adequately resourced and dedicated to preparation for a united Ireland - for doing the preparation. It is reckless not to prepare. The Tánaiste will probably be Taoiseach in a number of months' time. I ask him to please implement these recommendations.

I welcome this rare moment of unity. It is really good. We all have different political traditions that we can debate and that is fine, but Deputy Conway-Walsh would like to see a united Ireland in her lifetime and I would like to see a united Ireland in my lifetime. I agree that the shared island unit is doing good work - really good work. I notice that across the community, as I am sure Deputy Conway-Walsh does. Regarding Deputy Michael Murphy's question and the constructive contributions of Deputies Doherty, Conway-Walsh, Currie, Connolly, Shay Brennan and Cooney, the economics of this are important. I will send the remarks I made at the launch of the ESRI report to Deputy Conway-Walsh. Looking at this from a financial and economic point of view will ultimately be an important part of any debate whenever it arises and we have a responsibility to be prepared to engage on it. I often grapple in my own head with what the best way of creating that space is. Perhaps the Good Friday Agreement committee would be a good opportunity for us to engage on that report. I take the point that it is not all about the ESRI but there is ESRI-funded work with which all of us might want to familiarise ourselves. I am very happy to have an engagement with the appropriate committee on this matter.

It is important to acknowledge that a lot of analysis has already been done and is likely to be done but it is fragmented and very technical. It comes back to that overarching point I am making, which is that it is not easily understood by the general public. It is so important that information is collated in a way that is coherent and user-friendly and uses easy-to-understand language. Should we commission some kind of centralised, cross-departmental assessment that would publish regular updates and ensure that information is presented in a clear and non-specialist way? It is really about informing democratic discussion. It is not about prejudging any outcome. Without this, there is real risk that the public debate becomes shaped by partial information or competing claims.

I also welcome this debate. We have had great engagement on the Good Friday Agreement committee in our work examining the constitutional future of this island. Everybody has a voice. I welcome research and information from anywhere to contribute to this debate. Two things that have not been referenced are the productivity gap that exists North and South and the difference in educational attainment. There are great opportunities on an all-island basis. I am thinking about mid-Ulster, where I am originally from, in the engineering and manufacturing sectors so there are learnings across the board. Engagement is key and there will be no regrets on an all-island basis in progressing a financial and economic strategy that benefits anyone but that ultimately, from my perspective, bring us to a united Ireland.

We clearly need to have a longer debate in this House and the Whips and others should work out a way to faciliate this discussion. We should not fear it because, as Deputy Michael Murphy said, it is about information, facts, getting as much information as possible and identifying where there are information gaps. My Department published "Shared Island, Shared Economy" in 2024, which examined the macroeconomic performance, broad sectoral structures, fiscal structures and linkages between the two economies. It found that overall economic connections between Ireland and the North have continued to deepen, supported by increasing cross-Border trade, labour mobility and joint investment initiatives. The economy in this part of the island is significantly larger, with GNI* per capita around 25% higher than GDP per capita in Northern Ireland - a gap that has remained broadly stable. Productivity levels are higher on this part of the island, although that gap narrows considerably when multinational activity is stripped out, with Northern Ireland performing broadly in line with Ireland's Border and midlands region. Sectoral structures differ greatly. Ireland has a greater concentration in this part of the island in knowledge-intensive services, while the North has higher public sector employment and greater reliance on social welfare spending. There is also other data. There was a 2025 study by DCU and Ulster University, looking at the initial net fiscal cost of reunification. There is a debate around that. The Institute of International and European Affairs also looked at it, and suggested a much larger cost. The point is that we should not fear discussion, we should not fear facts and we should not fear preparedness. There is a responsibility on all of us to see how best to take that forward.