2026-04-28

132. Deputy Shay Brennan asked the Minister for Enterprise, Tourism and Employment his assessment of the likely impact of current aviation challenges on the number of overseas visitors to Ireland in 2026; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [30451/26]

Anois tá Ceist Uimh. 132, atá in ainm an Teachta Shay Brennan ach tá an Teachta Cahill á glacadh.

I raise this issue at a time of growing uncertainty for Ireland's tourism sector. In counties like Kerry, the uncertainty is very real. What is the Minister's Department's current assessment of the likely impact of these aviation challenges on overseas visitor numbers in 2026? Specifically, what contingency planning is under way to protect regions like Kerry? What actions are being taken to safeguard air access, support regional tourism and ensure counties like mine are not left exposed?

I thank the Deputy. The tourism sector entered the year with positive momentum. There were consecutive months of growth in overseas visitors from August through to February, the most recent period reported by the CSO, indicating that tourism was performing strongly prior to the escalation of the conflict. The Government, however, recognises that geopolitical instability, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, can have implications for international travel and tourism. Tourism is a vital pillar of Ireland’s economy, with overseas visitors contributing approximately €6 billion annually to the island. The sector supports close to 10% of total employment, and critically, around six in every ten tourism jobs depend directly on international visitors. The Middle East plays a critical role in global aviation, acting as a major transit hub and accounting for approximately 14% of international transit traffic worldwide. Disruption in the region therefore has system-wide effects that extend well beyond its borders, particularly for connectivity between Asia, Australia and Europe. These disruptions have altered the operating environment for tourism and underscore the importance of continued vigilance and a flexible, responsive policy approach as global uncertainty persists. Tourism Ireland continues to take a forward-looking approach to market development, underpinned by resilience and diversification. In August 2025, the Government set out targeted initiatives to grow tourism within mainland Europe and globally and avoid over-reliance on any single market. While maintaining strong performance in the US and Great Britain, Tourism Ireland is increasing its focus on mainland Europe, developing Canada as a key growth market, and laying the groundwork for long-term growth in markets such as China. The growing network of new air routes from the US enhances marketing potential. Tourism Ireland continues to undertake extensive advertising, publicity, social and digital activity along with airline and tour operator partnerships. Tourism Ireland's Kickstart campaign earlier this year covered 19 US states. As an island destination, air access is fundamental, accounting for approximately 90% of overseas inbound connectivity.

Tourism in Kerry is the lifeblood of our local economy. From Dingle to Cahersiveen, from Killarney to Ballyheigue, from Kenmare to Ballybunion, from Glenbeigh to Listowel, from Valentia Island to Tralee and right across the county, thousands of jobs and small businesses depend directly on a strong and stable flow of overseas visitors. That stability is under threat. We are seeing the early impacts of global aviation disruption, driven by the conflict involving Iran and rising jet fuel costs. Airlines are already scaling back. Lufthansa announced 20,000 flight cuts. We have seen reductions from Aer Lingus while others are adding fuel surcharges. For an island nation like ours that predominantly depends on air access, fewer flights mean reduced capacity, higher fares and, ultimately, fewer visitors. The Irish Tourism Industry Confederation has signalled the earlier growth projection of 5% to 7% this year is unlikely to be met. For Kerry, even a small drop in overseas visitors has a disproportionate impact. We are a premium tourism destination but also a peripheral one. We rely heavily on connectivity through our regional airports and on visitors making the additional journey beyond Dublin.

We have had strong growth this year, which is important to recognise, particularly since we brought in a new tourism policy in December, A New Era for Irish Tourism, which looks at bringing new strategies to lengthen the season and at ensuring we have a strong culinary strategy this year that will enhance the value proposition across the country, and, hopefully, an accommodation strategy that will look at viability for hotels. I want to be careful in terms of airlines. Many airlines are consolidating their routes. If they run two flights and they are half full, they will only run one. We want to be careful how that translates into cuts in numbers. We are encouraging the airlines and working with them on this huge challenge. We have a lot of capital schemes coming out from August for Fáilte Ireland looking at enhancing visitor attractions, working with the 46,000 SMEs and, hopefully, getting capital into them to enhance their value proposition. Through our viability mechanism - our VAT cut - we are giving them 4.5 % on their margin. We need 6% and 7% growth on domestic and overseas tourism, which will be important for the communities the Deputy represents.

I appreciate the Minister's response but I want to press the point about regional impact. This cannot be approached in a one-size-fits-all way. Kerry and the wider south west are particularly vulnerable to any reduction in air capacity. If flights are cut or become more expensive, visitors do not just delay; they often choose alternative destinations entirely. While there is a suggestion Ireland could benefit as a safe destination or from increased domestic tourism, we need to be realistic. Domestic tourism will not fully offset a decline in high-value overseas visitors, particularly in areas like Killarney, Kenmare and Dingle that rely heavily on international markets. We need to see proactive measures, not reactive ones. I urge the Minister to consider targeted supports for regional tourism businesses if numbers soften, enhanced marketing through Fáilte Ireland and Tourism Ireland, particularly in North America and mainland Europe, and, critically, protect and expand regional air access, including routes that serve the south west. There is a strong case for ensuring Kerry Airport and access routes into the region remaining a priority, especially in the context of any wider aviation strategy. The message from the ground is clear. There is nervousness in the sector. I ask that additional flights for Kerry be looked at from Belfast, Barcelona and Amsterdam to boost visitor numbers.

We will do our very best to ensure the sector keeps growing. I am aware that overseas visitors are critical for regional locations. That is why we are looking at growing our value proposition. Remember that some of the viability mechanisms have not started yet; they will not kick in until 1 July. They are coupled with reform of our capital schemes, and I have taken the view within the Department that what you cannot measure, you cannot manage. We have targets in Fáilte Ireland relating to growth on a month-by-month basis and strict KPIs to build up support for SMEs. There will be significant support across 2026 and we will continue that. We have about €400 million in our capital plan for the next five years to support the tourism sector. That is a very significant increase on the previous one. We also have a very strong budget working with our strategic air activation scheme. We are putting boots on the ground where we have new flights because we need resources to market them and to get the awareness of flights and to get them to take hold. There is a lot of work to do over 2026. I look forward to working with the Deputy to ensure the kingdom does benefit from that.